The Battle for the Champions League: How Have Newcastle’s Top Four Rivals Started?

Seven games into the Premier League season is not the time for sweeping conclusions, but it is long enough to sketch the shape of the race. Newcastle sit five points off fourth place, creating chances while still rediscovering their edge in both boxes. Around them? The traditional powerbrokers, an Aston Villa side recalibrating on the fly, and two persistent upstarts who think they’ve got the legs for a marathon. Here’s a deep dive into the field, club by club, through a Newcastle lens.

Manchester City

City have 13 points from seven games, scoring 15 and conceding six. They’ve created 63 chances, underpinned by strong expected goals numbers. Compared to last season’s first seven matches, they’re four points worse off, but the structure remains familiar.

Pep Guardiola has retooled. Gianluigi Donnarumma has replaced Ederson in goal, shifting the build-up dynamic toward pure shot-stopping. Tijjani Reijnders adds forward thrust and control in midfield, while Rayan Aït-Nouri has started strongly. Donnarumma’s saves have already altered match states, and Reijnders’ vertical passing has helped reconnect midfield to Haaland. It’s not peak-cycle City, but they looked well equipped for top-four.

Liverpool

Liverpool sit on 15 points, with 13 goals scored and nine conceded. They’ve created a league-high 77 chances. Compared to last season, they’re three points down, but still comfortably on top-four pace.

Arne Slot’s second season has brought big changes: Hugo Ekitike arrived early, and Alexander Isak joined late. Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez have freshened up the full back positions, while Florian Wirtz offers line-breaking creativity. The pressing is slightly less frenetic than Klopp’s peak years, but chance creation remains elite. Liverpool have the fire power but the question is whether defensive control holds in big games. Frompong and Kerkez look vulnerable and Slot is struggling to find the right balance in attack.

Arsenal

Arsenal have 16 points, scoring 14 and conceding just three, the league’s best defensive record. They’ve created 69 chances and look even more controlled than last season, despite being one point down on their previous seven-game tally.

Viktor Gyökeres gives Mikel Arteta the orthodox striker he long craved, Martín Zubimendi releases Declan Rice to influence games further forward and Noni Madueke adds depth. Arsenal have possibly regressed in terms of fluidity, but they still remain a goal threat. This is a team with a title-winning defensive platform.

Chelsea

Chelsea have 11 points, with 13 goals scored and nine conceded. They’ve created 61 chances, steady rather than spectacular. They’re three points down on last season’s start, but performances are far more coherent under Enzo Maresca.

The attack has been rebuilt around João Pedro, with Estêvão and Garnacho adding flair. Chelsea now have a clearer identity but they’re far from flawless. The structure suggests they’ll stay in the conversation for fourth but are far from nailed on.

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs have 14 points, scoring 13 and conceding five. They’ve created 55 chances and look far more resilient than last season. Compared to their first seven games in 2024/25, they’re four points better off.

Mohammed Kudus has been transformative, offering both creativity and 1v1 threat, while João Palhinha adds steel in midfield. Thomas Frank’s side now mix vertical surges with smarter protection of their defensive shape. Spurs look like genuine contenders for the top four, but the test will be sustaining this over the season.

Manchester United

United have 10 points, with nine goals scored and 11 conceded. They’ve created 76 chances, second only to Liverpool, but finishing and defensive control have lagged. Compared to last season, they’re two points better off, but look far from reliable.

Rúben Amorim’s first full season sees him continue with his 3-4-3. Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo, and Matheus Cunha headline the attacking refresh, but have struggled to find the net. The structure is still not clear, and although chance creation is high, transitions conceded and set-piece looseness keep dragging them back. A top-four push seems unlikely.

Aston Villa

Villa have nine points, scoring six and conceding seven. They’ve created 54 chances, but their expected goals split hints at early struggles. Compared to last season, they’re five points worse off.

Unai Emery has leaned into a more conservative off-ball shape, perhaps in response to last season’s heavy workload.. With Europa League commitments looming, depth will be tested.

The Outsiders: Bournemouth and Brighton

Bournemouth are the surprise package, sitting fourth with 14 points. They’ve scored 11, conceded eight, and created 63 chances. Antoine Semenyo has been electric with six goals and three assists. Iraola’s aggressive counterpress remains intact, but squad depth will be stress-tested. Sustaining this pace over 38 games is a big ask, but they can play gatekeeper to the top four.

Brighton have nine points, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. They’ve created 58 chances this season. They look like a mid-table floor with a European ceiling if chance quality improves. They’re exactly the kind of side that shapes the race by stealing points off contenders.

Where This Leaves Newcastle

Seven games in, Newcastle have nine points and 64 chances created, top five in the league for chance volume. They are five points off fourth with more than 80% of the season still to play.

The creation is there; the finishing and set-piece edge haven’t fully landed yet. As fitness smooths and fixtures open out, Eddie Howe’s side can absolutely ride a run into the Champions League places. Seven rounds is a sample, not a sentence. Despite a mixed start, Newcastle are well in contention to secure Champions League football again.