It looks as though Newcastle United are set to finally land João Pedro, three years after we could’ve had him for £25m. The price now? Around £50m. That stings, but it also speaks volumes. Howe has admired him for years. He didn’t just want a goalscorer. He wanted this player.
João Pedro isn’t coming in to replace Isak or play second fiddle to him on the bench – not at that price. He’s not even coming in for one role. What we seem to be getting is a Swiss Army knife forward: someone who can lead the line, operate behind the striker, or slot into midfield when needed.
One player. Three roles. Many systems.
⚽ The striker lens: cover, not clone
Compared to other forwards in Europe’s top 5 leagues, Pedro’s numbers are far from elite in front of goal. He’s in the 19th percentile for non-penalty goals and 13th for npxG – he’s not a poacher, nor a traditional line-leader in the Isak mould.
This may obscure what he actually is though. 97th percentile for progressive carries, 96th for progressive passes, 93rd for fouls drawn. He drops deep, links play, shifts defenders around – a false-9 type who creates space for others to attack.
In games where Isak is injured or simply needs rotating, Pedro offers a suitable backup, albeit not like-for-like. When Isak plays, Pedro can work just behind, or float wide, giving new combinations and angles of attack. He’s not there to replace Isak’s goals, but to make others easier to find.
🎯 The No. 10 lens: unlocking a 4-2-3-1
We all know that Howe’s favoured formation is the ever trusty 4-3-3. He’s used it almost exclusively since joining the club in November 2021.
Except when he hasn’t.
Howe has been willing, in certain circumstances under certain conditions, to experiment with different shapes and tactical variations. 3 CBs with Schär stepping into midfield in the Carabao Cup semi-final win against Arsenal being a classic case in point.
While these instances have been rare, they have been effective. The reason Howe favours the 4-3-3, in my opinion, is not due to tactical rigidity on his part, but rather a lack of alternative options, and recognising that this shape played in this way yields the best chance of getting positive results.
While effective, it is becoming rather predictable, and in the world of football, predictability is a results killer.
As an attacking midfielder, Pedro’s value sharpens. Compared to attacking midfielders, Pedro sits in the 79th percentile for assists, illustrating that he has final third vision and awareness to lay on goals for his teammates.
One intriguing stat that may hint at where his true value for Newcastle United may lay is his through ball volume, which sits in the 76th percentile, and speaks to a player looking to slice defences rather than recycle possession.
That makes him an intriguing partner for Isak. In a 4-2-3-1 Pedro could sit behind the striker, threading early passes into the channels, feeding off the movement of runners like Gordon, Barnes, Murphy etc., while looking for the off-the-shoulder final run from Isak for him to finish with devastating effect.
💪 The LCM wildcard: Joelinton’s stand in?
Here’s the curveball angle – Pedro as a left-sided 8.
Could João Pedro really operate as the advanced left-sided 8 in a midfield 3? Not in every game, no. But in certain contexts, absolutely. He’s nowhere near Joelinton’s clone. The raw numbers make that clear, Big Joe wipes the floor won’t Pedro in every conceivable defensive metric.
But that’s not the question. In games where we expect to dominate the ball – against deep low blocks or low intensity opposition – Pedro may offer us more. His technical qualities, sharp through ball volume, and high foul-drawing rage (84th percentile) gives us greater incision and control in the middle and final third. And despite the softer defensive edge, Pedro still holds his own in his aerial duels at a rate on par with Joelinton.
Just as with Isak, it’s not a like-for-like. But in the right game-state, Pedro as a left-sided 8 gives us something different: less disruptive chaos, more guile and craft.
🧩 Tactical elasticity in a PSR world
Pedro isn’t elite at any one role. But he’s good at several. He gives us depth, he’s, but more importantly he gives us flexibility.
– Need a backup for Isak? He can lead the line.
– Want to shift to a 4-2-3-1? He’s your 10.
– Need more control in midfield? He can step into the 8.
In an era where PSR forces clubs to think smarter, Pedro’s true value may lie in the fact that he lets you buy three players for the price of one.
⚠️ Is he the Isak replacement? Not quite
Newcastle United fans the world over remain hopeful that Isak’s contract situation doesn’t rumble into a saga and the striker commits his long-term future to the club.
But even if Newcastle United broke the wage structure to keep our much coveted centre forward at the club, any new deal will likely come with a minimum fee release clause meaning that Isak may eventually leave the club, if not this summer, maybe next – and arguably certainly next summer should he not sign a new deal, given that he’d only have 2 years left.
Amidst this context, some may wonder whether Pedro could well be the future Isak replacement in the event of a big offer landing on our desk for the enigmatic Swede.
A word of caution. Pedro’s output as a striker is well below what Isak brings. He won’t score the same goals or offer the same off-ball explosiveness. He’s a different tool altogether.
But maybe that’s the point. We’re not buying a clone. We’re buying a tactical shape-shifter. One who deepens our squad, expands our system options, and adds a layer of flexibility Howe clearly values.
£25m more than we could’ve paid? Maybe. But if it saves us needing to buy a 10 and a CM on top of a striker, it might just prove to be smart business – even if it took us a few years to get there.
