Match preview: Newcastle United vs Leeds United – An opportunity the Toon cannot afford to let slip
After a controlled but hard earned win over Crystal Palace, Newcastle United are back at St James’ Park on Wednesday night with a chance to build something tangible. This is the sort of fixture that rarely grabs headlines but often defines how a season feels by the end of January.
Momentum has been fragile for long spells this season. The Palace win offered a foothold. What happens next determines whether it becomes a platform.
Up next is a very winnable home game against Daniel Farke’s newly promoted Leeds United, who themselves have been on a good spell of form of late, so Howe’s men will need to guard against complacency to get the job done.
Recent form
Newcastle United arrive off back-to-back league wins for only the second time this campaign. The victory over Palace followed an important away win at Burnley and, taken together, those results have nudged Newcastle back into the top half and restored a sense of direction.
Home form has been the bedrock of a turbulent season so far. The lads are unbeaten at St James’ Park in all competitions for an extended run dating back to the 2-1 loss at home to Arsenal in late September. The challenge now is producing the kind of displays such as the recent victory to Palace, into consistent dominate home performances.
Leeds United, meanwhile, are on a solid run of form themselves. Their recent 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United was their 8 game unbeaten in a row – a feat they had not achieved in the Premier League since David O’Leary had been in charge in the early 2000s. However, without blowing too much smoke up their bottoms, this run has been marked by only 2 victories and 6 draws. Make no mistake about it, Leeds will be coming to St James’ Park to frustrate us, and scamper back to Yorkshire with a point.
Team news
Newcastle United will monitor the fitness of Jacob Murphy after he was withdrawn late on against Palace with a tight hamstring. Early signs suggest it is precautionary rather than serious, but his involvement may come down to risk management with a congested schedule ahead.
Anthony Elanga remains side-lined, while long term absentees such as Will Osula and Dan Burn continue their recovery. There is cautious optimism around defensive reinforcements, such as Sven Botman, edging closer, but this game is likely to see a similar group to the one that started at the weekend.
Predicted XI
What did Eddie say
On Leeds United:
“Leeds have come back into the Premier League and done really well. I think the first game we had against them, we saw very early in the season how strong they could be this year. I thought they were really good that day and it’s a tough game for us. Daniel Farke has done a really good job.”
On injuries to Jacob Murphy and Anthony Elanga’s return to fitness:
“Jacob had a scan but no major injury there, so I think it was probably fatigue. His physical numbers in the game were outstanding. I think he’ll be available. It will be a late decision but fingers crossed. I don’t think Anthony is quite there yet. It’s just taking a little bit longer in the final stages than we’d hoped. It won’t be long.”
On Lewis Miley’s recent performances:
“I am so impressed with him. I’ve said this countless times in the last few weeks. To play a position that he hadn’t played before in the manner that he has, is real credit to his football understanding and ability to take on new information and absorb that really quickly, being able to execute that under pressure has been a huge boost for the team, at a time where we didn’t have another player for that position. We will take it on a game-by-game basis. Lewi’s done really well, especially on the ball the other day in some really tight areas, getting out of some difficult spots with his range and good touch.”
On links to other jobs:
“I’m 100% here, working as hard as I can, head down, ignoring all the stuff that you guys write, whether it’s good or bad because it’s irrelevant.”
On why Barnes typically plays RW when played with Gordon:
“I don’t think Anthony enjoys playing on the right, Harvey is a lot more open to it and quite enjoys the freedom that position gives him with our way of playing…of course that doesn’t mean I can’t play Anthony out there, but if a player doesn’t want to play that position I think it is a difficult one to force them as I don’t think you’ll get the same kind of performances…probably [Barnes’] number one position is the left and I know where ideally he’d like to play, but I think he’s a goal threat off both sides and the stats would back that up.”
Key battles
Possession with precision: Leeds United will want to slow the game down, disrupt us in transitions, set deep and tight and frustrate our attacking players. Our lads will have the majority of the ball for the majority of the time. When opportunities present themselves, we need to recycle the ball quickly, stretch the play, and move into dangerous situations at speed.
Managing transition threat: As much as we will dominate the ball, Leeds will seek to spring a threat in transition. Being strong in possession, avoiding sloppily giving the ball back will control how often we face this threat.
Controlled intensity: The foundation of the controlled victory against Palace was the fact that we kept them under sustained pressure throughout until that pressure told. It wasn’t full-on intensity, it was controlled intensity. Apply the same work-rate and determination tonight, and Leeds United will surely crack.
Predictions and what to expect
This game still sits within the “season-defining” group of games before the form turns around. As such, this one could fairly be described as a ‘must win’, not because Leeds are weak, but because of what comes next. With Wolves away on the horizon, the table as congested as it currently is and a brutal run of fixtures looming beyond that, these are the games that give breathing space later.
Expect a competitive first half and a match that hinges on our ability to stay calm, disciplined and patient. If they show the same second half control as they did against Palace and keep pushing once ahead, home advantage should tell.
A narrow but deserved home win feels the most likely outcome. The bigger question is whether they can turn this into momentum rather than another isolated step forward.
Predicted score line: Newcastle United 1- 0 Leeds United
